Container Prices Surge as Tariff Threats and Nearshoring Trends Continue

The December 2024 Container xChange Forecaster report highlights the challenges reshaping North American container logistics, including the sharp rise in container prices, cascading effects of proposed import tariffs, and growing nearshoring trends.

North America's container shipping market is experiencing an unprecedented surge in costs, as detailed in the December 2024 Container xChange Forecaster report. Over the past 90 days, container prices have increased by 20%, the highest growth rate globally, despite the average prices of containers registering no significant change in China.

In November alone, container prices spiked by 31% to reach $3,400 at ports like Long Beach. Meanwhile, Canada reported a 23% rebound in container costs over the same period.

The report highlights that logistical bottlenecks and looming tariff hikes are complicating matters as businesses rush to adapt their supply chains ahead of the anticipated changes.

“Tariffs make trade less efficient by adding costs, time, and complexity,” said Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange.

“For instance, instead of straightforward routes, businesses may rely on transshipments, rerouting through Mexico, or diversifying production and assembly sites. This inefficiency requires additional capacity, much like what we saw during Red Sea diversions,” explained Roeloffs.

Labour unrest at East Coast ports is further escalating concerns, with fears of new strikes adding to delays and costs for importers.

October 2024 was a particularly disruptive month for global trade and logistics. Labour strikes at key North American ports, airspace closures in the Middle East, slowdowns in the Red Sea, and China’s Golden Week caused significant disruptions, many of which continue to impact global supply chains.

Tariff increases and political pressures

The report identifies tariffs as a critical factor driving the sharp rise in container prices. As President-elect Donald Trump plans to impose new trade policies, including a 25% import duty on goods from Mexico and Canada, businesses are rushing to move goods ahead of potential deadlines.

This urgency has contributed to increasing cargo volumes at U.S. ports, with shipping capacity and costs experiencing more-than-usual strain.

The inefficiencies caused by these proposed tariffs, combined with inflationary pressures and potential retaliatory measures, are expected to further destabilize the market.

“Consequently, we anticipate container prices and freight rates to stay elevated, supporting demand for containers and vessel capacity,” the report explains.

Nearshoring gains momentum

As container prices and tariff pressures mount, businesses are increasingly adopting nearshoring strategies. The Container xChange Forecaster report highlights Mexico as a pivotal trade partner for U.S. importers.

Mexico's proximity offers reduced transportation costs and faster delivery times compared to traditional transpacific routes. The China-Mexico-U.S. trade corridor is emerging as a key alternative to help businesses diversify their sourcing and reduce their dependency on Chinese goods.

Despite these opportunities, nearshoring has its own set of challenges. The report notes that Mexico's infrastructure is struggling to keep up with rising demand, and this can lead to mismatches in container supply and delays in processing shipments.

Importers expediting shipments

In response to the looming tariffs and potential labour strikes, U.S. importers are accelerating shipments to record levels.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), ports across the U.S. experienced unprecedented cargo activity in November and December as retailers advanced their purchases ahead of a shorter holiday season and to avoid global shipping bottlenecks. 

The NRF projects that container volumes in November will reach 2.17 million TEUs, a 14.4% increase from the previous year. In December, volumes are expected to reach 2.14 million TEUs, up 14%. This rush is adding strain to already limited shipping capacity.

President-elect Trump’s proposal to impose increased import tariffs has further heightened retailers’ concerns. A study by the NRF indicates that if Trump’s tariffs are implemented, American consumers could lose up to $78 billion in purchasing power annually.

Please reach out to one of our trade professionals to discuss the potential impact of increased container prices on your business.